Saudi’s oil price gamble exposes fragile finances

Saudi’s oil price gamble exposes fragile finances

**Written and disseminated to select contacts on March 25, 2020**

Saudi Arabia’s finances risk becoming seriously impaired if oil prices remain lower for longer, with the state budget and balance of payments deficits virtually unfinanceable at $30/b in 2020. The massive cuts to spending needed could lead to political and public discontent, especially at a time when progress on Vision 2030 goals is slow and unlikely to deliver on its economic objectives in the ambitious time frame.  

Rachna Uppal | Senior Analyst Business & Finance | r.uppal@castlereagh.net

MbS moves to quash dissent with detainment of senior Saudi royals

MbS moves to quash dissent with detainment of senior Saudi royals

**Written and disseminated to select contacts on March 10, 2020**

The move is intended to remind senior members of the ruling Al Saud family that, should King Salman suffer a debilitating health issue or die, current Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) will succeed smoothly, and any attempt to disrupt his succession will be thwarted and dealt with severely.

Neil Quilliam | CEO Castlereagh Associates | n.quilliam@castlereagh.net

Egypt: Demographic dividend or ticking time bomb?

Egypt: Demographic dividend or ticking time bomb?

Egypt’s rapidly growing youth population offers significant opportunities for economic development over the long term. However, a persistent skills shortage and misalignment of education and job market needs may prevent the country from successfully taking advantage of this potential demographic dividend. A failure to achieve the human capital and education plans outlined under Egypt Vision 2030 will jeopardise economic diversification plans and leave the country vulnerable to social and political instability.