Iraq: a compromise government for crisis management

Iraq: a compromise government for crisis management

**Written and disseminated among select contacts on May 11**

Iraq’s new PM, whose appointment on May 6 put an end to months of political stalemate in Iraq, faces multiple economic, social and geopolitical challenges. Before broader reform can be introduced, it will have to tackle a flailing economy, hit particularly hard by low oil prices and coronavirus. And while the new PM has the support of key political interests – the US, Iran and main parliamentary coalitions Fateh and Sairoon – he will face difficulties in trying to balance multiple interest groups and keep social protests at bay.

Daniel Moshashai | Regional Analyst Geopolitics & Infrastructure | d.moshashai@castlereagh.net

Managing COVID-19: China, OPEC and the energy markets

Managing COVID-19: China, OPEC and the energy markets

The coronavirus epidemic has put Asian oil and gas demand growth back in the spotlight – this time as a spoiler not the savior it has been in the last three decades.  That period had its scares – the Asian financial crisis of 1997-98 and the global financial crisis of 2008-09 – but Asian demand could generally be relied upon to buoy growth and bounce back quickly after crises. In the wake of COVID-19, forecasts of an economic rebound in China by mid-year may be correct, but certain structural factors could alter the longer-term trajectory of demand growth. For OPEC and the oil markets, the conditions make for an uncertain 2020.

Now everyone has the big boy’s toys:  The democratization of air power

Now everyone has the big boy’s toys:  The democratization of air power

Technological advances and increased globalization are calling into question long-held assumptions about the use of air power. Non-state actors capable of leveraging new technology – such as cheap precision guided missiles and drones – present a new challenge for air forces of advanced industrial states. Traditional powers must understand these emerging capabilities and the momentary advantages they create if they are to take steps to nullify them.