Risk - Castlereagh

Libya: from political stagnation to civil war?

14 Jun 2019

Field Marshall Khalifa Haftar’s April attack on Tripoli and the Government of National Accord has deepened the political disintegration of Libya. Foreign powers have at times violently intervened in the country and in other instances pushed for peaceful solutions. Renewed internal fighting has increased competitive pressures externally, potentially undoing the restrictions on oil sales and revenues that previously restrained the antagonists. Moves to gain control of Libya’s hydrocarbon assets and deprive their opponents from controlling them seems to be the logical next step.

Do Egypt’s macroeconomic indicators flatter to deceive?

07 Jun 2019

One of the key questions facing Egypt as it emerges from a three-year IMF reform programme is how resilient it will be to any future external shocks. The country’s deal with the IMF has yielded marked improvements to many of its main macroeconomic indicators, which should provide a platform for a sustained period of high growth, underpinned by inflows of foreign direct and indirect investment. However, many of the fundamental weaknesses in the economy persist.

The cost of simplistic power purchase

30 May 2019

Renewable energy deployment is increasingly reliant on independent power producers through power purchase agreements. Yet, off-takers are finding themselves committed to purchasing power at long-term and high prices in a dynamic market, while assuming all the risks. This is an impediment both for expanding renewables and achieving lower electricity prices. Future renewables growth will require a new approach to power purchase agreements as well as investment in mitigating risk and minimising generation costs.

Turkish power sector looks for COVID-19 restructure

2 Jun 2020

Jon Gorvett
Once a premium destination for overseas investors, Turkey’s power sector has recently been struggling with the impact of lower-than-expected growth rates, partial market liberalisation and fixed, long-term natural gas contracts. Power generation firms face further stress as the economic impact of the pandemic bites. Efforts to arrange a new debt restructuring deal have been delayed by the virus and wider economic woes, casting uncertainty over future demand. However, the sector retains some high-grade assets, however, which may attract future investor interest.

Climate change and migration – the next big challenge for MENA?

22 May 2020

The level of disruption caused by the coronavirus pandemic has revealed how ill-prepared governments and international institutions are for anything beyond their routine activities. When normality is once again restored, the world must learn the lessons from today’s events in order to prepare for, and mitigate, the worst effects of an even bigger challenge: climate change and global warming. For the MENA region, one of the most pressing questions will be how to handle flows of people displaced by climate change.

How will MENA handle mass urbanisation?

19 May 2020

Perhaps more than anywhere else in the world, rapid urbanisation in the MENA region will create significant investment opportunities for a variety of domestic and foreign firms. North Africa will see high-volume, low-tech developments, while capital-intensive projects such as rail and smart cities will be concentrated in higher-income nations in the Gulf. Elsewhere, a widening urban infrastructure deficit will stoke social instability.