Turkey’s economic woes heightened by coronavirus challenges

Turkey’s economic woes heightened by coronavirus challenges

Local and international responses to COVID-19 have impacted key sectors of Turkey’s economy, such as manufacturing, retail and tourism. While the global fall in oil prices will ameliorate some of the country’s current account stress, overall the economy is likely to shrink this year for the first time since 2009. Currency and financial sector weaknesses increase the risk of a protracted downturn.

Saudi’s oil price gamble exposes fragile finances

Saudi’s oil price gamble exposes fragile finances

**Written and disseminated to select contacts on March 25, 2020**

Saudi Arabia’s finances risk becoming seriously impaired if oil prices remain lower for longer, with the state budget and balance of payments deficits virtually unfinanceable at $30/b in 2020. The massive cuts to spending needed could lead to political and public discontent, especially at a time when progress on Vision 2030 goals is slow and unlikely to deliver on its economic objectives in the ambitious time frame.  

Rachna Uppal | Senior Analyst Business & Finance | r.uppal@castlereagh.net

Turkey’s banks take the strain

Turkey’s banks take the strain

Turkey’s banks entered the pandemic with some concerning underlying conditions and may need some significant financial ventilation if they are to come through it in good health. Foreign currency debt, depletion of foreign exchange reserves and political interference has added risk, with lenders likely to see increasing stress on their balance sheets in the months ahead. The picture darkens further the longer the health crisis continues.