Fiscal and monetary policy

Turkey’s economic woes heightened by coronavirus challenges

28 Apr 2020

Local and international responses to COVID-19 have impacted key sectors of Turkey’s economy, such as manufacturing, retail and tourism. While the global fall in oil prices will ameliorate some of the country’s current account stress, overall the economy is likely to shrink this year for the first time since 2009. Currency and financial sector weaknesses increase the risk of a protracted downturn.

Saudi’s oil price gamble exposes fragile finances

21 Apr 2020

**Written and disseminated to select contacts on March 25, 2020**

Saudi Arabia’s finances risk becoming seriously impaired if oil prices remain lower for longer, with the state budget and balance of payments deficits virtually unfinanceable at $30/b in 2020. The massive cuts to spending needed could lead to political and public discontent, especially at a time when progress on Vision 2030 goals is slow and unlikely to deliver on its economic objectives in the ambitious time frame.

Rachna Uppal | Senior Analyst Business & Finance | r.uppal@castlereagh.net

Turkey’s banks take the strain

21 Apr 2020

Turkey’s banks entered the pandemic with some concerning underlying conditions and may need some significant financial ventilation if they are to come through it in good health. Foreign currency debt, depletion of foreign exchange reserves and political interference has added risk, with lenders likely to see increasing stress on their balance sheets in the months ahead. The picture darkens further the longer the health crisis continues.

Turkish power sector looks for COVID-19 restructure

2 Jun 2020

Jon Gorvett
Once a premium destination for overseas investors, Turkey’s power sector has recently been struggling with the impact of lower-than-expected growth rates, partial market liberalisation and fixed, long-term natural gas contracts. Power generation firms face further stress as the economic impact of the pandemic bites. Efforts to arrange a new debt restructuring deal have been delayed by the virus and wider economic woes, casting uncertainty over future demand. However, the sector retains some high-grade assets, however, which may attract future investor interest.

Climate change and migration – the next big challenge for MENA?

22 May 2020

The level of disruption caused by the coronavirus pandemic has revealed how ill-prepared governments and international institutions are for anything beyond their routine activities. When normality is once again restored, the world must learn the lessons from today’s events in order to prepare for, and mitigate, the worst effects of an even bigger challenge: climate change and global warming. For the MENA region, one of the most pressing questions will be how to handle flows of people displaced by climate change.

How will MENA handle mass urbanisation?

19 May 2020

Perhaps more than anywhere else in the world, rapid urbanisation in the MENA region will create significant investment opportunities for a variety of domestic and foreign firms. North Africa will see high-volume, low-tech developments, while capital-intensive projects such as rail and smart cities will be concentrated in higher-income nations in the Gulf. Elsewhere, a widening urban infrastructure deficit will stoke social instability.