Our Insights
Intelligence you can act upon
For a limited period, visitors to our website will be able to access a selection of our very best insights and top calls on geopolitics and market trends in energy, finance, infrastructure and more.
As the go-to source for political and sectoral risk analysis in the MENA region, our team specialises in providing bespoke and actionable intelligence to support your business and investment decisions.
If you have interests in the region and wish to find out more about this product, or any of our services, please get in touch.
Tunisia’s Economic Decline Continues
Despite high hopes for Tunisia’s future following the overthrow of President Zine El Abedne Ben Ali, the country has experienced a trend of economic decline since 2011 in tandem with an era of political dysfunction. The rise of President Kais Saied, who has...
Egypt: Infrastructure and Building Projects Mask Economic Woes
Under the government of President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, Egypt has undertaken a large number of ostensibly impressive infrastructure projects, the most notable of which has been the building of the New Administrative Capital (NAC) to which government ministries are...
Morocco’s Automobile Industry and Decarbonisation
Morocco’s recent unveiling of a new hydrogen car prototype developed by the native-owned car company Neo Motors should be seen as part of a two-pronged strategy: first, to continue to expand manufacturing and development of automobiles as a key part of the country’s...
Sudan: Protracted Conflict and Continued Economic Downturn Likely
The armed conflict in Sudan that began in mid-April between the regular army led by Abd al-Fatah al-Burhan and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) led by Muhammad Hamdan Daqlo (Hamedti) is essentially a power struggle. Whereas the regular army wishes to subsume the RSF,...
The Syria-Turkey Earthquake: New Prospects for ‘Normalisation’?
In theory, the aftermath of the earthquake that has primarily affected southern Turkey and northern Syria could offer new opportunities for the Syrian government to cement acceptance of its rule by both its Turkish neighbour and by the wider international community. Yet it is important to be clear about what ‘normalisation’ actually means and how far it can go. The earthquake aftermath seems unlikely to lead to a major shift in the status quo in Syria but rather only reflects temporary exemptions out of humanitarian concerns. In turn, there will still be few returns and too many risks for those considering investment and business in Syria for purposes such as reconstruction.
Editor
Iran’s Economy: A Bleak Picture but an Enduring Regime
The state of Iran’s economy presents an overall bleak outlook for the year 2023. Although assessments from major financial institutions point to economic growth for Iran for the coming year, this growth is limited, whereas inflation rates remain high and the value of...
Libya: Political Stalemate Hinders Further Oil and Gas Development
The political divide in Libya harms development of the country’s oil and gas sectors, and only adds to the severe doubts about whether the country can step up to meet European natural gas demand seeking alternatives to Russian supplies. It is therefore little surprise that European countries place hope in more stable and reliable neighbouring Algeria to meet the shortfall in gas supplies.
Energy Editor
Iraq’s Political Crisis: Escalation and De-Escalation Without Resolution
Iraq has recently seen the most severe infighting in years between political factions of the country’s Shi’a majority, as dozens of people were killed and hundreds were wounded overnight on 29-30 August in armed confrontations between followers of the Shi’i cleric Muqtada al-Sadr (‘Sadrists’) and other Shi’a factions on the streets of Baghdad and southern cities like Basra.
While tensions were defused by Sadr’s order for his followers to withdraw from Baghdad’s Green Zone and fears of the beginning of a new civil war in Iraq have been averted for now, the current situation is arguably the worst political crisis in Iraq since at least the end of the conventional war against the Islamic State group that saw the formal recapture of all lost territory by November 2017. The fundamental problem behind this latest round of escalation and de-escalation remains: namely, the inability of Iraq’s political parties to agree on the formation of a new government following parliamentary elections in October 2021.
Editor
African Gas: Europe’s Alternative to Russian Gas?
Following the beginning of Russia’s war with Ukraine on 24 February and Moscow’s use of the weapon of natural gas supplies against European countries in response to the Western sanctions, many European states have begun looking for alternatives to Russian gas that constitutes around 40% of Europe’s natural gas imports. This is so especially after Moscow cut gas supplies from a number of European countries like the Netherlands and Denmark, in addition to one of the companies that transport gas to Germany, in response to its non-payment to Russia in roubles.
Energy Editor
VAT hike aims to shore up Saudi’s finances amid low risk of public resistance
**Written and disseminated among select contacts on May 12**
Saudi Arabia announced a series of measures on Monday – including a three-fold hike in VAT from July – to address a sharp deterioration in its financial position. A policy response to the twin crises of lower oil prices and the global coronavirus pandemic was inevitable, but the austerity measures are far-reaching and will hit Saudis at a time when many businesses are already struggling amid severely restricted economic activity.
Rachna Uppal | Senior Analyst | r.uppal@castlereagh.net