Gulf Monitor
Gulf Monitor
The countries of the GCC – the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, and Bahrain – continue to be reliant on natural resources as a primary source of fiscal revenue. Their citizen populations expect a range of social services and patronage from the state and its ruling families. Pressures of population growth and expectations of intergenerational equity have put economic policy at the centre of state capacity.
There is new momentum to resolve, or at least begin to shift public policy to address inefficiencies like subsidies, spur private sector and non-oil growth, and create alternate sources of government revenue. The momentum accelerated with a sharp decline in global oil prices in late 2014.
Castlereagh’s Gulf Monitor provides an insight into key developments in economic diversification, monetary and fiscal policy, social policy and foreign relations in line with the collective ambitions of GCC states to change their economies, yet preserve their systems of governance.
Also housed on this page is the Market Watch collection by Karen E. Young, who has followed and mapped closely the GCC states’ policy response since 2015. It is an authoritative guide to understanding policy formation, reaction and hydrocarbon reliance in the GCC in the last five years.
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The Korean Connection
There is an important, and unexpected, interlocutor in Saudi-Iranian relations right now.
GCC Sovereign Debt in a Low Yield World
There is talk of a Japanese contagion in global capital markets.
Regional Integration, Teachable Moments and the Politics of Fear
The politics of integration across sovereign boundaries can be precarious, even fickle, as Brexit illustrates.
Smart(er) Money in the Gulf
Fiscal retrenchment has consequences on deployment of Gulf capital.
This Time We Mean It: Staying the Course on Economic Reforms
This post is part of an AGSIW series on Saudi Vision 2030, a sweeping set of programs and reforms adopted by the Saudi government to be implemented by 2030.
Saudi’s Summer of Anticipation
This post is part of an AGSIW series on Saudi Vision 2030, a sweeping set of programs and reforms adopted by the Saudi government to be implemented by 2030.
Understanding Vision 2030: Anticipating Economic Change in Saudi Arabia
This post is part of an AGSIW series on Saudi Vision 2030, a sweeping set of programs and reforms adopted by the Saudi government to be implemented by 2030.
The Debt Roadshow Begins
It’s a good time to be a banker with government clients in the Gulf.
Business Politics
Despite calls for change, there are many aspects of state-business relations that remain the same.
Drop in the Bucket: Reduced Fuel Subsidies Offer Little Deficit Relief
The Gulf Cooperation Council states have drastically reduced subsidies of fuel, with the exception of Kuwait, which planned to reduce fuel subsidies but met stiff resistance from Parliament.
Gulf Economic Statecraft Hits Lebanon
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah recently railed against the influence of Gulf money and political support in Lebanon.
Declining Gulf States’ Financial Support Adds to Egypt’s Currency Woes
The Egyptian central bank devalued the pound on March 14, 2016.