Gulf Monitor - Castlereagh

Oman’s new economic reality calls for Vision 2040 strategy rethink

09 Jun 2020

John Davies
The severity of the economic challenge facing Oman will persist long after the COVID-19 pandemic has receded, requiring the country to rethink its long-term approach to economic development. Vision 2040 remains a top priority for the leadership under Sultan Haitham but with insufficient funds to carry out legacy spending commitments, it will have to rely upon the private sector to drive diversification. This means we could see an acceleration of reforms to attract investment, including further dismantling of foreign investment restrictions, privatisation, closer ties with China and a new tourism strategy.

Business as usual? UAE consumer spending post COVID-19

05 Jun 2020

Karen Young
While the UAE has unveiled a series of stimulus measures to support businesses during COVID-19, the economic fallout of the pandemic has taken its toll on consumer behavior. With many of the country’s key sectors heavily affected by the virus and facing a potentially long period of recovery, businesses will need to adapt to new consumer preferences if they are to encourage a rebound in spending.

Where do Saudi Arabia’s youth stand amid COVID-19?

29 May 2020

Mark C. Thompson
In Saudi Arabia, where some 60% of the population is under the age of 30, and largely well educated, constructive youth engagement is a necessity for the socioeconomic development. With the fallout from the coronavirus pandemic threatening the economy and the pace of societal transformation, this analysis considers the youth perspective on the crisis – how they view the impact on their job prospects and on their lives.

Turkish power sector looks for COVID-19 restructure

2 Jun 2020

Jon Gorvett
Once a premium destination for overseas investors, Turkey’s power sector has recently been struggling with the impact of lower-than-expected growth rates, partial market liberalisation and fixed, long-term natural gas contracts. Power generation firms face further stress as the economic impact of the pandemic bites. Efforts to arrange a new debt restructuring deal have been delayed by the virus and wider economic woes, casting uncertainty over future demand. However, the sector retains some high-grade assets, however, which may attract future investor interest.

Climate change and migration – the next big challenge for MENA?

22 May 2020

The level of disruption caused by the coronavirus pandemic has revealed how ill-prepared governments and international institutions are for anything beyond their routine activities. When normality is once again restored, the world must learn the lessons from today’s events in order to prepare for, and mitigate, the worst effects of an even bigger challenge: climate change and global warming. For the MENA region, one of the most pressing questions will be how to handle flows of people displaced by climate change.

How will MENA handle mass urbanisation?

19 May 2020

Perhaps more than anywhere else in the world, rapid urbanisation in the MENA region will create significant investment opportunities for a variety of domestic and foreign firms. North Africa will see high-volume, low-tech developments, while capital-intensive projects such as rail and smart cities will be concentrated in higher-income nations in the Gulf. Elsewhere, a widening urban infrastructure deficit will stoke social instability.